Thursday, October 29, 2020

Adapting for a Long-Haul Pandemic

The latest reports on NPR's "Fresh Air" predict that the present status of pandemic (disruptions, masks, social distancing) are likely to persist into 2022 (18-24 more months); and that the psychological, biological, and economic distress from this time are likely with us another 3-5 years after that. (More details and my thoughts after the link)
There was also some discussion on how longer term, after most of us have been exposed to it or vaccinated, it may end up being like chicken pox is now--if you are exposed to it with vaccine or direct exposure as a young, healthy child, it will be relatively mild and some level of immunity developed; but with chicken pox, if you don't get it/ get vaccinated as a child, it can be deadly in adulthood.
While the latter prediction is not particularly rosy, it is the first prediction that leaves me feeling rather forlorn. Granted, it was much more troublesome news when I first heard it about two weeks ago--at that point, the prospect was the moment when I realized how exhausted I was and could do no more. After a few days' intentional rest, I was able to carry on as much as could be expected.
Most of my passion for ministry and community organizing is in gathering people together (especially around food).
Most of what our family enjoys are activities with others out in the community.
Most of our family holidays are celebrated with extended families.
So, I'm grieving that today--and the realization it's going to be 2-3 years before we really start to see an external return to 'normal.' Perhaps that's why so many of us are trying to carry on like 'normal,' (without any real precautions), even if we don't have to (for example, socializing and going to community events, rather than going to work in a risky atmosphere as a matter of survival).
I do worry that without significant adaptation, most of our community organizations, congregations, and other places of culture and recreation, may not survive.  We have one such organization in town, whose survival plan was to become a conference center--but from what reports like this say, in-person conferences may not be realistic or popular for several years to come. Without conferences and concerts and mass community events, hotels may not be able to remain viable. The historic Palmer House Chicago, which I have enjoyed immensely for several conferences, is apparently boarded up and in foreclosure. Right here in River City, Music Man Square may have to adapt significantly to survive--until such time as its present survival plan would make sense again.
For today, though, and our home, I am also looking to adapt--how to continue working from home or in a pandemic-responsible environment; how to ensure the kids are learning something this year despite their boredom; how to celebrate the holidays apart from one another. So far, we have been healthy, and lucky. I realize with rapidly rising numbers and full hospitals in our area, that could change at any time.
However, I do believe we have some cause for hope, both short-term and long-term. In March, when the pandemic first started, a person who contracted COVID had a 1 in 4 chance of dying from the disease. Now, in late October, people who contract COVID have, if I heard correctly, a 1 in 5 chance of dying. Those may still seem like bad odds, but it is a move in the right direction--and what happens as health care workers learn what doesn't work, and what does, toward helping people have better outcomes.
The other part that does bring me hope is that we have largely learned --at least some segment in each field--how to socially adapt. Churches have learned to embrace technology almost overnight--something which had been happening at a snail's pace over the past generation. Right now I am figuring out how to do a 3.0 rewrite/ update to Family Welcome Centers International and We Parent Together International to reflect the next 5 years of pandemic and post-pandemic realities (all while being prevented from launching 2.0 for FCWI or even a full rollout of 1.0 for WPT). The rest of my ministries and organizing projects are in various stages back on the drawing board. I do actually think each of them might be better for it, in time.

On Authoritarianism, and Have We Reached Our 'Bonhoeffer Moment?'

Friends, I want to share a particularly poignant resource, and also add my thoughts on the question that has been circulating among clergy and people of faith: Where is Bonhoeffer in all of this, and/or, have we arrived at the Bonhoeffer moment?

This was an excellent discussion on authoritarianism this morning on NPR's "On Point." I highly recommend it. It's about an hour, and I believe a transcript will be available within the next day or so.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2020/10/29/america-authoritarian-threat-government-democracy

I do feel, after hearing this, and looking at the other readily available signs (Trump's own words in his speeches; policies of his staff; reports from NPR, NY Times, and similarly reputable news sources on the activities of the militias, supporters, police, ICE, etc.), that we are plausibly headed into some form of a civil war following this election--even if there were a landslide for Biden. The question I raise for voters is: do you want Trump to have the full force command of the military, police, intelligence services, ICE, and militias behind him--where we will have to rely on people in these forces to conscientiously object or abandon their posts; or do we want Trump to no longer have access to that firepower, except for the militias and the loyalists he has in the military and police? 

I do not put it past Trump to try to harm Biden if he wins; based on the statements he has made about Biden 'being shot three weeks into his term and Kamala taking over.' While Trump has since walked back his statement to say that 'being shot' means Biden wouldn't have the stamina--a recurrent theme; it could also be seen as a dog whistle or invitation to the same kinds of folks who were plotting to kidnap Governor Whitmer in Michigan.

I do not put it past Trump to enact as many human rights violations as he can against as many marginalized groups as he can, including the deportation blitz recently referenced in the news from a White House leak, immediately following the election--perhaps regardless of whether he wins. I also expect Trump will pardon each of his associates who have been convicted of crimes in the process of aiding his rise to power or corruption since taking office. I do believe it is plausible that Trump is using the pandemic as a means of passively eliminating the groups he believes are 'undesirables:' the poor, immigrants, racial-ethnic minorities, people with disabilities and chronic health conditions, the elderly, those living in institutionalized settings. As it became clear that the virus was largely sparing those who could afford to self-isolate by not having to work and being able to have all needs delivered; and that those who had access to high-quality healthcare are more likely to survive; Trump's response to the pandemic shifted. Life-saving aid to benefit the most vulnerable has been stopped, such as unemployment supplements that raised many impoverished workers to a living wage, food assistance supplements, and direct stimulus aid to every household. Activities known to spread the pandemic are being promoted: unmasked large social gatherings such as rallies and church, in particular. While the people boldly participating in these activities. I do even believe that the impeachment at the beginning of this year was a type of 'trial run' for holding on to power this fall: in the end, even though there seemed to be little disagreement on the facts of the case itself, Congress declined to convict. I believe that there was at least some realization among Congress that there were enough white nationalist sympathizers among the police and military, along with growing white militia activity, that any attempt to force Trump from office involuntarily would lead to significant armed resistance. Far better, perhaps, to pass the buck until the election in the fall. And now here we are, with the threat of violence on the horizon once again, as evidenced in Trump's own speeches.

One of the statements that did give me bleak encouragement was that if Trump did hold on to power and do his worst, that perhaps Canada would re-open the border so people could escape; please, friends--update your passports and other essential papers. Not only may some of us need to be prepared to move from our homes to safer neighborhoods, communities, states, or countries; we may indeed need to help others get to safety with our vehicles, fundraising, and networks.

So many folks have asked already, "Are we at the Bonhoeffer moment?" or "Where is Bonhoeffer in all of this?" We remember that Bonhoeffer was not a famous, powerful church leader in life; but a simple pastor and professor whose work was relatively unknown until after his death. We also remember that Bonhoeffer was arrested and executed for his part in a plot to assassinate Hitler. So, while we have so many good everyday pastors and professors, faithful and true, who have resisted the lies of Nationalism and the Christian Nationalist movement; who are speaking up from their pulpits and writing to their audiences about the need to realize what is happening and who is suffering; no friends--that Bonhoeffer moment is not yet here.

The Bonhoeffer moment arrived when there were no more options available to German people of good conscience; when Hitler could no longer be stopped from within; and most importantly--when the seemingly random and rare occurrences of daily oppression moved into the Final Solution: systematic, mass deportation, concentration, and extermination of the groups of people deemed enemies of the State: Jews; foreigners, racial-ethnic minorities; Roma (Gypsies); LGBTQIA+ people; people with disabilities; people who were too sick to labor in the camps; dissidents, and anyone who resisted. This was after the removal of dissidents from the universities and government; after the silencing of the major media to the crimes of the State; after all borders and routes to escape incarceration and death were closed; and after all of the everyday German citizenry were too worn down themselves by the war, the decade of economic collapse that preceded it, and the all-consuming everyday struggles brought by both, to realize or process fully what was going on--or to separate the benefits they believed the State was bringing them from the horrors enacted against the Others. We are quite plausibly on the road to that end, if unabated; but no, we are not yet at the point where it would be morally reasonable for us as clergy to participate in an effort to assassinate our Head of State.

Rather, the moment that is here, now, is for all of us, and everyone around us, to vote. We are to vote; to encourage calm and reason to prevail in these next weeks around the election and ballot counting; to preach and teach the fundamental human worth and dignity of all people; and to attend to the needs of our communities--shepherding our people who despair, who are lonely, who are hungry, who are cold. We are also to be watchful for signs and declarations that our nation intends to engage in mass concentration, incarceration, deportation, and execution of marginalized groups of people, which could plausibly happen within the next six months.

These times may seem bleak. The most recent reports tell us that these present hardships and disruptions of the pandemic are likely with us for another two years, into 2022. Our society will be coming to terms with the psychological stress and trauma and the biological and economic impact as well) from this experience for a solid 3-5 years after the pandemic begins to wane. It may remain with us in a less lethal form for the foreseeable future thereafter. This will consume an enormous amount of our energies. Neither will our political troubles be over within the next few months, regardless of the outcome of the election; even if we are able to attain a peaceable outcome to the election, we still have the long, difficult work ahead of us of undoing systems of historic injustice. This, too, will consume a good deal of our energies, as it ought.

And yet, friends, despite these present challenges, I do not give up hope; I believe that while each person may not be held accountable in court or custody, that somehow yet justice may prevail; that somehow yet children in cages will be freed and reunited with their families; that somehow yet we could begin taking common sense measures to contain the pandemic; and that somehow yet, we will walk back from the brink of fascism in this country. At least while we have so many people who do deeply desire the common good, for all people, we have hope.