The latest reports on NPR's "Fresh Air" predict that the present status of pandemic (disruptions, masks, social distancing) are likely to persist into 2022 (18-24 more months); and that the psychological, biological, and economic distress from this time are likely with us another 3-5 years after that. (More details and my thoughts after the link)
There was also some discussion on how longer term, after most of us have been exposed to it or vaccinated, it may end up being like chicken pox is now--if you are exposed to it with vaccine or direct exposure as a young, healthy child, it will be relatively mild and some level of immunity developed; but with chicken pox, if you don't get it/ get vaccinated as a child, it can be deadly in adulthood.
While the latter prediction is not particularly rosy, it is the first prediction that leaves me feeling rather forlorn. Granted, it was much more troublesome news when I first heard it about two weeks ago--at that point, the prospect was the moment when I realized how exhausted I was and could do no more. After a few days' intentional rest, I was able to carry on as much as could be expected.
Most of my passion for ministry and community organizing is in gathering people together (especially around food).
Most of what our family enjoys are activities with others out in the community.
Most of our family holidays are celebrated with extended families.
So, I'm grieving that today--and the realization it's going to be 2-3 years before we really start to see an external return to 'normal.' Perhaps that's why so many of us are trying to carry on like 'normal,' (without any real precautions), even if we don't have to (for example, socializing and going to community events, rather than going to work in a risky atmosphere as a matter of survival).
I do worry that without significant adaptation, most of our community organizations, congregations, and other places of culture and recreation, may not survive. We have one such organization in town, whose survival plan was to become a conference center--but from what reports like this say, in-person conferences may not be realistic or popular for several years to come. Without conferences and concerts and mass community events, hotels may not be able to remain viable. The historic Palmer House Chicago, which I have enjoyed immensely for several conferences, is apparently boarded up and in foreclosure. Right here in River City, Music Man Square may have to adapt significantly to survive--until such time as its present survival plan would make sense again.
For today, though, and our home, I am also looking to adapt--how to continue working from home or in a pandemic-responsible environment; how to ensure the kids are learning something this year despite their boredom; how to celebrate the holidays apart from one another. So far, we have been healthy, and lucky. I realize with rapidly rising numbers and full hospitals in our area, that could change at any time.
However, I do believe we have some cause for hope, both short-term and long-term. In March, when the pandemic first started, a person who contracted COVID had a 1 in 4 chance of dying from the disease. Now, in late October, people who contract COVID have, if I heard correctly, a 1 in 5 chance of dying. Those may still seem like bad odds, but it is a move in the right direction--and what happens as health care workers learn what doesn't work, and what does, toward helping people have better outcomes.
The other part that does bring me hope is that we have largely learned --at least some segment in each field--how to socially adapt. Churches have learned to embrace technology almost overnight--something which had been happening at a snail's pace over the past generation. Right now I am figuring out how to do a 3.0 rewrite/ update to Family Welcome Centers International and We Parent Together International to reflect the next 5 years of pandemic and post-pandemic realities (all while being prevented from launching 2.0 for FCWI or even a full rollout of 1.0 for WPT). The rest of my ministries and organizing projects are in various stages back on the drawing board. I do actually think each of them might be better for it, in time.
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